Jan 15, 2019
| 10 min read

Value Vector

A Look Ahead to 2019 - Key Predictions From Our Podcast Guests (Part 2)

This year we’ve covered a lot of ground in our Momenta Podcast series. We reached out to a few of our guests to ask them “What are your top 3 ideas, themes or predictions for 2019?”  We share the responses below:

From Ahmed Banafa, IoT thought leader and author of the book "Secure and Smart IoT Using Blockchain and AI”.  From his IoT Predictions for 2019 here are our top 3:  

More Investments in IoT 

  • Spending on IoT will hit $1.4 trillion by 2021 according to IDC. IoT is one of the few markets that have the interest of the emerging as well as the traditional venture capitalists. The spread of smart devices and the increase dependency of customers to do many of their daily tasks using them, will add to the excitement of investing in IoT startups.  

IoT and Standardization 

  • Standardization is one of the biggest challenges facing growth of IoT—it’s a battle among industry leaders who would like to dominate the market at an early stage… but what we have now is a case of fragmentation. One possible solution is to have a limited number of vendors dominating the market, allowing customers to select one and stick to it for any additional connected devices, similar to the case of operating systems we have now have with Windows, Mac and Linux for example, where there are no cross-platform standards. There is no way to solve the problem of fragmentation without a strong push by organizations like IEEE or government regulations to have common standards for IoT devices. 

IoT Skills Shortage 

  • According to a Canonical report, 68% of businesses still struggle to hire IoT experts. The latest Tech Cities Job Watch report from Experis showed a 35% increase in the demand for technology skills since this time last year, as businesses look to harness the power of IoTThe [report] noted that IoT has massively increased the number of connected devices and has exploded the volumes of data businesses have to process and as a result, big data roles are important to delivering success on IoT…Businesses [are] willing to pay for such skills, with big data professionals commanding by far the highest salariesof any other technology discipline analyzedUniversities cannot keep up with the demand, so to deal with such shortage, companies have established internal training programs to build their own teams, upgrading the skills of their own engineering teams and training new talents. This trend will continue, representing an opportunity for new engineers and a challenge for companies. 

 

Finally from Nick Gogerty, Author of The Nature of Value along with  SolarCoin economic research, a slew of forecasts: 

  1. Storage (lithium ion) capacity estimates will grow 2-3 X bigger than current estimates of 1 TWh capacity in 2028 from BNEF. 
  2. Storage will start to change the game for solar etc. and will start impacting diesel projections and refiner blend projections 5-7 years out (they run tight ships) most diesel is in very "known" route commercial vehicles (buses, trucks, garbage trucks etc.) so range anxiety is less an issue so users can purchase the KWh storage they need.   
  3. Tesla becomes a $200bn market cap company. due to more factories coming online. traditional manufacturers and auto industry don't get it. Tesla isn't a manufacturer, it is learning machine. It is learning how to get cheaper and do better. It is innovating not just on product, but scale, distribution and vertical integration at a global scale and across the new energy landscape from transport to storage and production. 
  4. 2nd tier luxury auto players and brands late to the electric market (Volvo) etc. are in trouble with economic downturn looming survival post 2020 is challenged.  GM wakes up in 2019 and declares plans to make an electric truck for 2023 (3 years too late).  
  5. By end of 2019 EV estimates 5-7yrs out are increased greatly as manufacturers and startups put over $150-200bn in capex on the planning table. The projected material impact to oil demand 5-7 years out brings peak oil forward and accelerates the pressure to pump faster putting price pressures on. 
  6. Stranded assets due to cheap solar and distributed storage approach estimates north of $2 trillion on a forward looking basis across developed world.  Regulatory push back and massive lobbying and advertising about the "dangers" of decentralized energy sources of cobalt are funded by incumbents to forestall economic death. 
  7. Dynamic energy pricing becomes a major issue across highly regulated and antiquated markets as the differential between centralized production and distributed storage grows more apparent (this actually takes place in 2020-21.  
  8. More entrants mistakenly enter the EV market confusing the low barrier to entry (no need to build a complex ICE) with the key differentiator (cheap storage), network etc.  Note the "cheap storage advantage" isn't a competitive factor 6-8 years out after $50/KWh is broached by most producers and e marginal cost of storage 60KWhx$50=$3k is less relevant to the overall vehicle cost. 

Want more predictions? Check out Part 1 featuring more of our podcast guests!

Momenta 2019 Predictions webinar  

Please Join Us January 17th for a Year Ahead Preview

Please join the Momenta Partners team for a special webinar that will examine top themes for 2019. This special presentation will highlight the most relevant topics related to Connected Industry and Digital Transformation with a state of the market and outlook for 2019. 

Topics include:

  • AI/Machine Learning – From Hype to Value
  • Edge Computing: at the center of innovation
  • Autonomous Vehicles at our Door
  • The Low Power Revolution of Unpowered Assets

You will not want to miss this event. Presenters include Ed Maguire, Jim Fletcher, Ken Forster and others from the Momenta team!

Save your seat!

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Momenta Partners encompasses leading Strategic Advisory, Talent, and Investment practices. We’re the guiding hand behind leading industrials’ IoT strategies, over 100 IoT leadership placements, and 17+ young IoT disruptors. Schedule a free consultation to learn more about our Connected Industry practice.